SubHub's Predictions For 2010

SubHub's Predictions For 2010

 

By Miles Galliford, SubHub Co-Founder


There is never a dull year in Internet land and 2010 will be no exception. There are a dozens of exciting things happening which will impact the way we live, conduct business and communicate. Most are positive, some are a little scary, all are worth being aware of.

Here are my 10 predictions for the most important trends.

By the way, if you want to see how I got on predicting what would happen in 2009, click here.


Prediction 1 – The Moment of Truth For Traditional Publishers


Rupert Murdoch’s vociferous arrival to the free versus paid debate signals a tipping point for the traditional publishing industry.

The Internet has pushed Murdoch out of his comfort zone and he is surrounded by a team who sees the web as a threat, not an opportunity. However whilst the News International team bash Google and governments, hundreds of print publications, particularly niche trade magazines, are making the successful transition onto the web.

2010 will be the year that the tide goes out and we will see who is swimming naked.


Prediction 2 – The Apple Tablet Could Start a Revolution


Steve Jobs, the mastermind behind Apple, revolutionized the music industry with the iPod and the cellphone market with the iPhone. He is now looking for the hat trick; revolutionizing the publishing sector with the Apple Tablet. It won’t happen overnight because the tablet’s initial price point will be around $1,000, but it could start the snowball rolling down the hill.

Publishers need to be really aware of what Apple are doing.


Prediction 3 – Aggregation of Money Making Services


There are dozens of services that help the online entrepreneur make money, but each requires a separate sign-in, control panel and minimum payout levels.

2010 will see new applications come along that pull together many of these services under one roof. Skimlinks aggregates affiliate networks. Pubmatic and Rubicon Project bring together ad networks. More will follow.


Prediction 4 – PayPal X Creates 100’s Of New Opportunities


Payment processing is seen by most Internet entrepreneurs as a dull, but necessary evil (like insurance). However PayPal X offers entrepreneurs the opportunity to build new innovative services around flexible payment processing.

An example; PayPal X allows payments to be automatically distributed to multiple parties. A group of magazine publishers could create a package of publications where one payment gets access to multiple premium websites. The customer makes one payment and the revenue is automatically shared out amongst all the publishers, based on pre-agreed percentages.


Prediction 5 – A World Built Of Apps


The staggering success of iPhone apps has taken the world by surprise. Analysts estimate over $1billion worth of iPhone apps will be sold in 2009!

Today many mobile companies are desperately trying to catch up including Android, Blackberry, Nokia, Orange and Microsoft Mobile.

But the App business model has far more potential than just smartphones. 2010 will see apps emerge in other sectors, for example, personal and business websites could be built simply by adding apps to pages. Today there are already plug-ins and extensions, but apps will put the power into the hands of the non-technical end user.


Prediction 6 – Android Will Catch Apple


The iPhone has been a staggering success in the smartphone market, with 50m users and 100,000 apps, but it is very expensive and aggressively controlled. The open Android operating system is building a loyal following of developers who are creating new and exciting functionality.

In 2010 there will be dozens of new Android phones, including one from Google themselves. The cheaper price and more flexible development environment should lead to take-up exploding in 2010 and I predict by the end of the year Android and iPhone sales will be at similiar levels.


Prediction 7 - Google Personalized Search Will Change SEO


On the 7th December 2009 Google quietly announced a fundamental change to the way they present search results. From that day forth results will include the last 180 days of the searcher's search history.

So, if a searcher regularly looked at CNN.com, Google would prioritize stories from CNN. If the searcher regularly visited Amazon, whenever they search for a book title, Amazon will be given priority in the results.

Before 7th December searchers could opt-in to having their history taken into account; after the 7th history is turned on as a default. Click here to understand the huge ramifications that this will have on websites and SEO.


Prediction 8 – The LiveWeb  Will Become More Important


Heard about the LiveWeb? It is the new name given to all the tools and services, which allow people to communicate in real-time – Twitter, Facebook, Google Wave, etc. Currently the Live Web has focused on peer-to-peer communication. 2010 will see it more formally enter the realms of news, product reviews and research. Google recently announced it was adding Twitter to search results, which will get the ball rolling. If you think the world moves fast today, you ain’t seen nothing yet!


Prediction 9 – Augmented Reality


I don’t like the name, but augmented reality will become a reality. This is when data is overlaid onto real world images.

Imagine holding up your smartphone and taking a picture of a street and all the houses that are for sale are highlighted with their price and specification; or taking a picture of a famous monument and immediately hearing a recording about its history; or taking a picture of a car and getting the specification, price and the nearest dealer. 

There have been lots of examples and experimentation in 2009; this year augmented reality will go mainstream.


Prediction 10 – Social Media Chaos in Corporate Land


2009 was the year that companies embraced social media (Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn). 2010 will be the year they realize just what a double-edged sword it can be.

Social media hands over corporate communications to employees; that is a frightening prospect for senior management. Some companies will try to ban employees discussing company matters, others will add social media restrictions to employee contracts, a few will take employees to court and most will reluctantly accept the genie is out of the bottle and cannot be put back in.

Social media has – and will continue – to turn marketing, PR and corporate communications on its head. It will make some companies and destroy others.

If you have any other predictions, please add them below.


I wish you a happy and prosperous 2010.